Against all the historic antagonisms between France and Britain stands the long-term commitment of both countries one to another. Matters of security should be of far higher priority than a narrow or mean French desire to hurt or punish the United Kingdom over Brexit. The successful candidate must be the best and most qualified person to fill the appointment, and the selection process must not become a political football. It is in this wider context that the reported attempt by Emmanuel Macron to obstruct the candidacy of Ben Wallace, the British Defence Secretary, is so ridiculous. However, over Ukraine Putin has miscalculated badly and rather than divide Nato, he has been the catalyst to forge even greater cohesion within the alliance – at least for now. He has goaded the Baltic states, begging the question: would the US really go to war with Russia over Latvia or Estonia? He seized an opportunity to expand Russian influence in Syria and the Middle East and was delighted that the West laid down red lines over the use of chemical weapons and then walked away from them. For many years during his leadership of the Russian Federation he has worked to destroy Nato’s cohesion, challenging and testing the alliance by posing dilemmas that he hopes will bring diverse responses from member states. This unreconstructed KGB colonel watched in horror during the late 1980s as his beloved Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact crumbled in the face of the solidarity of Nato and the West. The force confronting Nato – now and potentially in the future unless there is a dramatic Russian collapse in Ukraine – is and will be Vladimir Putin. It is vital that the candidate selected has relevant experience, a proven track record and is an individual of international stature, capable of commanding respect from all member states. Therefore, it follows that the selection of the next secretary general of Nato will have a major bearing on the future security of Europe. While the actions of individual countries to support Ukraine now and in the future will be important, the continuing ability of Nato to give a collective voice to the West will be crucial.
Peace and stability in Europe must be the ambition and the restoration of affordable standards of living the highly desirable consequence. As ongoing events in Ukraine demonstrate, there is no more important issue affecting the security of Europe than a satisfactory outcome to that war.
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